Trump is going to create new tax laws that will make it expensive to outsource jobs or move plants overseas. This seems wonderful for the American worker. But, unemployment is so low in the United States, how will you find quality people to do those jobs which are being brought back here — or jobs that are being prevented or discouraged from leaving here? When I try to get anyone to do anything in the United States I run into road blocks. The people who don’t have jobs are normally lazy, unproductive, argumentative, or just plain picky about what they do. The people who will work are normally extremely sluggish about getting anything done and expensive.
I am all in favor of making America great again and punishing China for currency manipulation. However, with low unemployment here, it will be difficult to find people. Personally, I feel our government should help people find jobs and ensure zero percent unemployment. You might have a job you don’t like, but at least you would have a job in an ideal society.
The next serious problem with America (besides lazy people who argue all the time) is that our local skill sets are not adequate to do the jobs of the future. People need to know computer programming, robotics, and other high tech skills. Americans are weak at these skills and without Asian immigration we would have an even more severe shortage of tech workers. Bringing back jobs won’t do us any good unless we have Americans to do those jobs. And Trump wants to make it harder for Indians and Chinese to come to America — those are the only people who can do the high tech jobs he is bringing back. And the Mexicans he wants to keep out are the only people who will do the low paid manufacturing jobs.
The moral of the story is that you can’t have your cake and eat it too. If you want low paid manufacturing in the USA, the only way to do that is to turn the US into Latin America which has already happened in my neighborhood — but, the papusas are good so I won’t complain!
Trump is such an interesting character. On the one hand he does business around the world. On the other hand, he caters to frustrated lower-middle class white guys in America who want to keep jobs in America! Can we have it both ways? And what does Trump really believe beneath the hype?
I believe that Trump is likely to increase or create import taxes from certain countries. China is going to be at the top of the list. GM is a company popular with American workers who say the word, “aMERican” with the emphasis on the “MER.” The irony is that GM is all over China getting rock bottom prices on infrastructure and labor during China’s economic recession. Meanwhile Apple who is all over the world taking advantage of regional tax breaks is going to pay big time when Trump clamps down on their manufacturing which is heavily in China. An import tax will harm both these companies in a huge way. I would not be surprised if stocks go down by 25% for both of them.
Meanwhile, the outsourcing business is unique as it is a service. It is harder to track who is doing outsourcing when you look at smaller companies unless the government monitors their Paypal accounts (and it does for tax purposes.) You can see which Paypal payment goes overseas. If the government puts a tax on outsourcing, it might not be so bad. A 20% tax would mean that providers would have to lower their rates by 10-15% to stay in business. Some would go out of business, while others would lower their rates. The customer on the American front would not have to pay that much more after all is said and done.
Personally, I prefer a free and open market. That way the world can capitalize on labor wherever and whenever it can be found. Land for manufacturing might be cheaper in Mozambique than Minneapolis and companies can take advantage of that. But, Trump is sure to fight for some outsourcing taxes. So, don’t cry. You won’t be out of business if it happens — it will only hurt!
On a brighter note, unemployment is so low in America, that prices for services here are bound to rise making it easier for overseas competitors to stay afloat until we have a bad recession.