The old days
It used to be easy to hire programmers for many years, but recently a bubble in the .net programming market has formed, making it hard to get any programming resources at all, even if you pay top dollar. The only way to get work done is to offshore the work to Eastern Europe or India it seems. But, even they have a shortage of the higher end programmers.
But, when will this bubble end? Maybe sooner than you think!
What is India doing?
India is churning out programmers faster than a sausage machine turns out sausages — or at least it seems. The big companies gulp up all the good ones too. In India there are tons of junior level programmers available, but where are the seasoned programmers? Gulped up! They exist, but they just are not available for consumption by smaller companies. However, as the years go on, all of the existing junior programmers will mature into seasoned programmers, and hopefully there will be too many programmers for the big companies to devour. Or, there could be a turn in the world economy where the big guys start laying off workers left and right. It is unpredictable and markets are always cyclical in any case. But, programmers grow on trees in India and that is not going to change.
The hidden giant!
The world looks at India when it thinks about software outsourcing. The Philippines doesn’t do that much IT outsourcing compared to call center work. But, what about China? China focused more on manufacturing for decades, but now is doing a lot more with IT outsourcing. Chinese companies tend to be larger than most Indian companies which is a huge difference. But, the key fact to understand here is that Chinese will work 16 hour days, and can be very efficient if they put their mind to it. If the Chinese decide to take over IT outsourcing, then in a matter of years, the game will be over. India is too lackadaisical to win the game. China will win and take most of the market with it. This could mean mass unemployment for American programmers and a glass ceiling for salary increases in India.
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